I step out of my house to find my driver-less car from the ride-sharing service waiting for me, with my ride-sharing partners already seated and working. The indicator on my coffee mug tells me I have enough for the drive to the office – I fire up the console in front of me and log into my Office 365 account to finish up a sales proposal during the drive.
On the way back from the office, this cycle is repeated, except now the car has transmitted my arrival information to my home – to have it at the right temperature when I arrive with the lights on – and I have enough time to order groceries and shop for a gift on the car’s “marketplace”.
Too futuristic for you? If you have been following the developments in the auto industry, you would know that almost all of this is available today…
It was only about four months ago that I wrote about Uberization in auto sales – idea being that Tesla is leading the charge into changing the paradigm around auto sales to improve customer loyalty and satisfaction.
A couple of weeks ago at the CES trade show, the auto industry was again at the forefront of change – with announcements ranging from enabling people to access their Microsoft Office suite in the car from Microsoft and Harman, to “mobility services” from Ford.
“Ford’s rollout of mobility services, mostly under the “FordPass” brand name, resulted from 18 months of evaluation into building an end-to-end customer experience around the new offerings. FordPass, which launches in April, will be free, whether or not users own a Ford vehicle. FordHubs, the name for its storefront centers—which bear resemblance to Tesla’s retail locations—will open later this year in New York, San Francisco, London, and Shanghai. In February, Ford plans to launch a shared-lease program in Austin, Texas, that will allow up to six friends or neighbors to share a single vehicle. And soon FordPass members can speak directly to a human being, from a team dubbed FordGuides, to book a space at a local parking garage or receive other services”.
Add to that GM’s recent $500 million investment in ride-sharing company Lyft and purchase of SideCar‘s assets (SideCar was a ride sharing service which shut down last December) – the auto industry is truly thinking ahead, maybe because of necessity.
There are many factors leading to that thinking, but primarily, it is the increasing global realization that owning a car for everyday use may not be the most attractive option (of course, the purchase of a car for ego purposes cannot be discounted just yet). Even in the U.S., the number of households without a car grew from 8.7% in 2007 to 9.2% in 2012.
Consider this prediction from 2014:
The world will reach “Peak Car” — a point at which annual global sales growth will top out — in the next decade, several auto-industry analysts predict.
Researcher IHS Automotive, for one, sees annual sales cresting at 100 million within that time. Peak Car is at odds with the ambitious expansion plans of global automakers, which IHS says are gearing up to produce more than 120 million vehicles by 2016 — almost 50 percent more than last year’s worldwide sales mark of 82 million
So what is a major auto manufacturer (and its ecosystem of parts suppliers) to do?
An interesting article in MIT Technology Review talks about how auto manufacturers are taking tentative steps to become services businesses. In this age of “Everything as a Service”, a new term comes to mind for this – “Mobility as a Service”.
Indeed, the article offers a prescient quote: “Uber showed the world that it can help people get where they want to go.”…(On another note, people following this thread maybe interested in a recent article in The New Yorker around how Uber and it’s Dubai-based competitor, Careem, have changed the lives of women in Saudi Arabia – which restricts driving by women)
The tune of the analysts has also changed in less than two years:
In November, Gartner, a technology market research firm, predicted that by 2020, 10 percent of today’s vehicle owners in urban markets will replace vehicle ownership with on-demand vehicle access. Thilo Koslowski, vice president and automotive practice leader at Gartner, believes companies like Uber and Lyft have an early-mover advantage in the short-term—but in the long run car companies could become legitimate players in mobility services made possible through car connectivity. He says their success won’t strictly be a matter of investment, but developing a culture and mind-set that extends beyond products.
So to answer the question above, in the short-term, companies like BMW are hoping to gain competitive advantage by impressing the ride-sharing users with the benefits of owning a BMW, but in the longer run, the Mobility as a Service and related offerings may become the primary way to financial success.
For more thoughts, follow me @RajBhandariDFW